Based on the mathematics modeling developed by HKU Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine (HKUMed), the HKUMed research team led by Professor Gabriel Leung, Dean of HKUMed and Chief Scientific Officer of the Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, projected a significant drop in Hong Kong’s infection figures in the fifth wave of COVID-19 by the end of March, keeping up the existing social distancing measures. The modeling also predicted daily caseload of below 1,000 by late April and that of lower than 100 by mid-May.

The team further estimated the total infection cases to be around 3.58 million as of March 14 (this Monday), and expected the final number of this wave to be around 4.48 million, accounting for 60.5% of Hong Kong’s total population of 7.4 million, with the latest estimation of final death toll of 5,102 approximately.

The team added that the two oral COVID-19 antiviral drugs, respectively Molnupiravir and Paxlovid that have been available last week and this week, are expected to reduce hospitalisations by 30% and deaths by 89%.

News coverage:
RTHK – https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1639033-20220315.htm

Headline Daily – https://bit.ly/3tWTpKD

Sky Post – https://bit.ly/3tcZQKu

Now News – https://news.now.com/home/local/player?newsId=469612&refer=Share

Yahoo! News – https://bit.ly/3JfhCm0

HK01 – https://bit.ly/3q8kAkB

The Standard – https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/188141/Hong-Kong’s-Covid-19-infections-to-drop-significantly-by-late-March:-HKU

China Times – https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20220315003642-260409?chdtv

United Daily News – https://udn.com/news/story/122650/6166256